Making of an Ignoramus (Trump)

Truly, Donald Trump knows nothing. He is more ignorant about policy than you can possibly imagine, even when you take into account the fact that he is more ignorant than you can possibly imagine. But his ignorance isn’t as unique as it may seem: In many ways, he’s just doing a clumsy job of channeling nonsense widely popular in his party, and to some extent in the chattering classes more generally.

Last week the presumptive Republican presidential nominee — hard to believe, but there it is — finally revealed his plan to make America great again. Basically, it involves running the country like a failing casino: he could, he asserted, “make a deal” with creditors that would reduce the debt burden if his outlandish promises of economic growth don’t work out.

The reaction from everyone who knows anything about finance or economics was a mix of amazed horror and horrified amazement. One does not casually suggest throwing away America’s carefully cultivated reputation as the world’s most scrupulous debtor — a reputation that dates all the way back to Alexander Hamilton.

The Trump solution would, among other things, deprive the world economy of its most crucial safe asset, U.S. debt, at a time when safe assets are already in short supply.

Of course, we can be sure that Mr. Trump knows none of this, and nobody in his entourage is likely to tell him. But before we simply ridicule him — or, actually, at the same time that we’re ridiculing him — let’s ask where his bad ideas really come from.

First of all, Mr. Trump obviously believes that America could easily find itself facing a debt crisis. But why? After all, investors, who are willing to lend to America at incredibly low interest rates, are evidently not worried by our debt. And there’s good reason for their calmness: federal interest payments are only 1.3 percent of G.D.P., or 6 percent of total outlays.

These numbers mean both that the burden of the debt is fairly small and that even complete repudiation of that debt would have only a minor impact on the government’s cash flow.

So why is Mr. Trump even talking about this subject? Well, one possible answer is that lots of supposedly serious people have been hyping the alleged threat posed by federal debt for years. For example, Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House, has warned repeatedly about a “looming debt crisis.” Indeed, until not long ago the whole Beltway elite seemed to be in the grip of BowlesSimpsonism, with its assertion that debt was the greatest threat facing the nation.

A lot of this debt hysteria was really about trying to bully us into cutting Social Security and Medicare, which is why so many self-proclaimed fiscal hawks were also eager to cut taxes on the rich. But Mr. Trump apparently wasn’t in on that particular con, and takes the phony debt scare seriously. Sad!

Still, even if he misunderstands the fiscal situation, how can he imagine that it would be O.K. for America to default? One answer is that he’s extrapolating from his own business career, in which he has done very well by running up debts, then walking away from them.

But it’s also true that much of the Republican Party shares his insouciance about default. Remember, the party’s congressional wing deliberately set about extracting concessions from President Obama, using the threat of gratuitous default via a refusal to raise the debt ceiling.

And quite a few Republican lawmakers defended that strategy of extortion by arguing that default wouldn’t be that bad, that even with its access to funds cut off the U.S. government could “prioritize” payments, and that the financial disruption would be no big deal.

Given that history, it’s not too hard to understand why candidate Trump thinks not paying debts in full makes sense.

The important thing to realize, then, is that when Mr. Trump talks nonsense, he’s usually just offering a bombastic version of a position that’s widespread in his party. In fact, it’s remarkable how many ridiculous Trumpisms were previously espoused by Mitt Romney in 2012, from his claim that the true unemployment rate vastly exceeds official figures to his claim that he can bring prosperity by starting a trade war with China.

None of this should be taken as an excuse for Mr. Trump. He really is frighteningly uninformed; worse, he doesn’t appear to know what he doesn’t know. The point, instead, is that his blithe lack of knowledge largely follows from the know-nothing attitudes of the party he now leads.

Oh, and just for the record: No, it’s not the same on the other side of the aisle. You may dislike Hillary Clinton, you may disagree sharply with her policies, but she and the people around her do know their facts. Nobody has a monopoly on wisdom, but in this election, one party has largely cornered the market in raw ignorance.

Trumped? by Lefsetz

Bob Lefsetz
Stop making fun of him!

If that worked, somebody else would be the nominee, he wouldn't have increased his share of the electorate after the debacle in Wisconsin. The more the holier-than-thou say they know better, the more the downtrodden and alienated double-down.

And if you think continuing to label him a racist iconoclast works, you don't realize that most of those voting for him don't care what the man says, they just want to shake up the system, they believe in the man, not his outbursts.

Truly. There are only so many redneck yahoos out there. Trump wouldn't have won the nomination if they were the only ones who cared.

Hillary lost the nomination to Obama in 2008 and she's doing a good job of losing here. Because she's not playing to win, she's playing it safe. Utilizing the Clinton handbook of the nineties, where you triangulate, comb the research and tell people what they want to hear.

That don't work no more, in the twenty first century people don't want artifice, they want AUTHENTICITY!

Hillary is making the number one mistake of the popularity wars, she's letting her haters define her. It's hard to come out from under that. Furthermore, she's playing nice and being all milk and cookies when we know she's more cutthroat than the Donald and more experienced. It's time not only for Hillary to take off the gloves, but to be mean. To zing. This is a heavyweight fight and you cannot win if you're on the ropes and you don't punch back.

Furthermore, this is the tech election. And in tech there's a huge first mover advantage. He who gains traction first, even with a substandard product, oftentimes wins, especially if he improves the product along the way. And believe me, the soft, sensitive, reasonable side of Donald Trump is being groomed for the public as I write this. What's Hillary gonna do then, when Trump is alternately sensible and nice?

Talk about jujitsu.

Clinton plays by the old rules, the ground game. But today it's all about the online game. The right wing owned talk radio and the left wing owned the internet. But now Trump has leapfrogged the left to own social media. The days of blogs are through, now it's all about Twitter and Facebook and Snapchat...and Hillary better start now, because it's gonna be hard to garner a following in the fall.

What do we know about Hillary?

What the right wing wants us to know about her. The email server, Benghazi. Most people are clueless as to who she really is, and the truth is when you get her on stage, in front of people, she's quite remarkable. But Debbie Wasserman Schultz put the debates on Saturday night so no one would see them, so the frontrunner wouldn't be challenged, and today the media is all Trump all the time. The Donald eats a taco bowl and it's front page news. As if those voting for him can't see it's calculated and ultimately don't care. Will you stop making fun of those leaning to him, that's how the Republicans got into this pickle to begin with.

And all this b.s. about immigration and trade and...

It's not about the specifics, it's just that Trump's adherents believe someone's finally listening to them, that he's on their side. So far, Hillary has been defined by the LEFT as being on the fat cat Wall Street side. And that's just nuts, it's Trump who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth, it's Trump who's inured to the private jet lifestyle. We haven't seen such a topsy-turvy delineation since Kerry was the traitor and Bush was the war hero... Huh?

So please Democrats, stop going negative and start going positive. Give people a reason to vote for Hillary as opposed to trying to scare them away from Trump. I mean how scary can the man be, he was in business with NBC, he was on television ad infinitum. No one thinks that prime time is peopled with criminals.

But there are legions of people who believe Hillary belongs behind bars.

Come out swinging Hillary. Make news every day. Don't play it safe. Don't worry about the dyed-in-the-wool Democrats, they're already on your team. Cater to those in between, who've lost their jobs and feel they're unheard. And the irony here is that it will bond the disaffected Bernieites to you along the way.

Stop playing to the moneyed interests. You think you need them but you don't. Bernie didn't and he raised a ton of cash. You can too, if you're just honest and forthright, if you're three-dimensional, if you let people know who you really are and convince them that you care about them.

And I know you do.

But no one else seems to think so.
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Muslims, Mormons and Jesus

Have you ever read the Old Testament? War is common and required by God. Many more than one wife is called for. There is a lot of violence and sex. In the New Testament, Jesus stands up for a whore (Mary Magdelen), is the bastard son of Mary, and is a religious Jew who believes in kindness and generosity and obligations to the poor. For which he is violently dealt with by the people his ideas are threatening. There is great injustice, violence and hatred in the Bible. Ever since,  most Christians do not follow his beliefs, but use his name to justify greed and the killing of people who disagree with their interpretation of their BOOK (religion) - including Muslims (The Crusades is an example;  over the Centuries the horrible mistreatment of people with different beliefs is part of history, The Inquisition is another; including a war on Science: Galileo, Darwin, and many more were considered 'heretics') The hostility towards people who have different beliefs and ideas is as prevalent today as it has ever been. You can find good and bad in every Holy Book but it is foolish to think that the average person follows the rules as written; only VERY DEVOUT people and Fanatics do and usually distort their Book - just like Christians seldom follow Jesus' teachings! I think you need to calm down and stop being afraid of our soldiers, teachers, nurses and businessmen just because they have different ideas than you do. Hey, I even respect the right of Mormons to wear 'magic' underwear!

Trump and Faye

Faye. You are right. Trump has charisma and sounds strong and definite in what he says. It is so appealing to go for the man who sounds so strong and positive, who is also a terrific negotiator. BUT it is not that people disagree with him: it's that one day he is on one side of the issue and within a day or two he is on the opposite side of the issue. Also a lot of his statements are immediately proven wrong by the facts; he makes up a lot of his strongly stated 'facts'. In many areas of what is necessary to be a President he is completely ignorant or just plain wrong - I'm not talking about things that you can't pin down but rather things you can prove. One small, but incredibly important example, is saying that Angela Merkel in Germany is a disaster! Germany is a crucial ally and it is the most stable and successful country in Europe. Profoundly insulting the head of Germany is the worse thing a President can do PLUS she is doing a great job - not a disaster. Extreme example of being uninformed, ignorant and causing problems for our country for no good reason - plus having your facts completely screwed up! Faye, you need to think more deeply about the things that Trump says with such certainty: he is wrong a lot, he lies a LOT to you, and sez one thing and then the opposite at least once a week!

Coral reef found at mouth of the Amazon!

Huge coral reef discovered at Amazon river mouth

Scientists astonished to find 600-mile long reef under the muddy water in a site already marked for oil exploration

Satellite view of the mouth of Amazon river and Brazil coast
 Scientists were ‘flabbergasted’ to discover the Amazon reef as coral usually thrives in clear, sunlit tropical waters. Photograph: Modis/Nasa

A huge 3,600 sq mile (9,300 sq km) coral reef system has been found below the muddy waters off the mouth of the river Amazon, astonishing scientists, governments and oil companies who have started to explore on top of it.

The existence of the 600-mile long reef, which ranges from about 30-120m deep and stretches from French Guiana to Brazil’s Maranhão state, was not suspected because many of the world’s great rivers produce major gaps in reef systems where no corals grow.

In addition, there was little previous evidence because corals mostly thrive in clear, sunlit, salt water, and the equatorial waters near the mouth of the Amazon are some of the muddiest in the world, with vast quantities of sediment washed thousands of miles down the river and swept hundreds of miles out to sea. 

But the reef appears to be thriving below the freshwater “plume”, or outflow, of the Amazon. Compared to many other reefs, the scientists say in a paper in Science Advances on Friday, it is is relatively “impoverished”. Nevertheless, they found over 60 species of sponges, 73 species of fish, spiny lobsters, stars and much other reef life. 

Its discovery came as a complete surprise, says co-author Patricia Yager, a professor of oceanography and climate change at the University of Georgia. “I was flabbergasted, as were the rest of the 30 oceanographers. Traditionally, our understanding of reefs has focused on tropical shallow coral reefs which harbour biodiversity that rivals tropical rainforests,” she told The Atlantic.

But the reef, no sooner found, is said to be in grave danger. According to the paper, the Brazilian government has sold 80 blocks for oil exploration and drilling at the mouth of the Amazon and 20 of these are already producing oil – some, it is thought, right on top of the reef.

“These [exploration] blocks will soon be producing oil in close proximity to the reefs, but the environmental baseline compiled by the companies and the Brazilian government is ... largely based on sparse museum specimens. Such large-scale industrial activities present a major environmental challenge,” said the study’s authors.

The Amazon is the world’s greatest river, collecting water from an area over 7m sq km